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Bulgarian Exports Decline by 1.7% as of February: Outlook Remains Uncertain Amid Global Trade Tensions

14.04.2025

In the first two months of 2025, Bulgaria’s exports continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace. According to preliminary data from the National Statistical Institute, the total value of exported goods amounted to BGN 12.8 billion, representing a 1.7% decrease compared to the same period last year. The primary factor behind this decline is reduced trade with countries outside the European Union, while exports to EU member states remained relatively stable.

External environment and trade conflicts

The current export contraction follows two consecutive years of decline after a record-breaking 2022. The economic stagnation in the EU — Bulgaria’s main export market — has had a significant impact on export-oriented companies. As of February 2025, the decline was milder compared to January (2.5%), but the challenges are deepening due to the ongoing trade war between the US and the EU.

Although the administration of President Donald Trump has temporarily postponed the 20% general tariff for the European Union by 90 days, 25% tariffs are already in force on US imports of steel, aluminum, and cars. These actions create substantial uncertainty in international trade, with potential implications for Bulgarian companies, particularly those embedded in the supply chains of large European exporters.

Direct and indirect effects on Bulgaria

While direct exports from Bulgaria to the US are relatively limited (about 2.5% of the total, valued at BGN 2 billion in 2024), more significant effects could arise from the export of components to European manufacturers. However, for the first two months of 2025, direct Bulgarian exports to the US showed a 2.8% year-on-year increase, indicating some resilience in trade activity.

Changes in export composition

According to NSI data, exports of vegetable and animal oils and fats (including sunflower oil) fell by nearly 89% in February, albeit from a low base. There was also a notable 8% decline in exports of machinery and equipment, amounting to BGN 857 million. Meanwhile, exports of food and live animals rose by 36% to BGN 843 million, and sales of beverages and tobacco more than doubled.

In trade with EU countries, January data shows a 25% drop in energy-related exports, while beverages and tobacco rose by 41.6%.

Regional focus: What does this mean for Ruse?

Ruse, as an established industrial zone and logistics hub with active participation in international value chains, is sensitive to global trade dynamics. Shifts in demand and changes in tariff policy between the EU and the US could directly impact export-oriented production. Nevertheless, Bulgarian exports to Germany — the country’s largest trading partner — continue to grow, with a 6.1% increase in the first two months of 2025.

This creates opportunities for companies in the region that are adapting to the new environment through market and product diversification.


Source: Capital, April 14, 2025, “Exports down 1.7% as of February”
Author: Vasil Minkov

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